LaLiga xG – Which teams are over and underachieving?

We are already a third of the way into LaLiga 2024/25, with most teams having played 13 of their 38 games. An important battle is starting to take place, with Barcelona taking the lead at the top of the standings from the Madrid clubs, while Valencia, Real Valladolid and Espanyol are currently in the bottom three.

LaLiga xG data can help answer some key questions regarding which teams are in a fair position, and which teams may or may not be underachieving based on the number of chances they create and provide.

While there are other factors that could complicate matters, teams currently outperforming their xG or xGA may see a slight decline in the coming months in terms of the number of goals they score or concede. Meanwhile a number of struggling teams will find positives in some of these numbers and reason to believe that things will eventually get better.

The xG data used in this section comes via fbref.com which can be used to access more detailed information for each team. This is accurate for matches played before the weekend of 23/24 November 2024. You can find a full explanation of xG (expected goals) here.

LaLiga xG – 2024/25 season leader

1.Barcelona (31.2)

2. Real Madrid (22.1)

3. Real Calf (20.3)

It’s no surprise considering the number of goals they’ve scored, Barcelona are far ahead with the highest xG in LaLiga 2024/25 so far at 31.2. If they continue to create chances like this, they will end the season with an estimated 91.2 goals scored, compared to 77.6 last season which was also the most goals of any team in Spain’s top flight.

Real Madrid’s xG tally of 22.1 has them in a distant 2nd place at the moment, although they have played one game less than their arch rivals. Meanwhile Real Betis is currently in 3rd place, with slightly more xG than teams like Atletico Madrid and Villarreal.

Valencia created the fewest xG in LaLiga this season with 8.0. They have also scored eight goals, showing that they are neither performing better nor worse than expected in the final third of the field, based on the chances they create. They have played two games less than most teams, but their xG per 90 minute statistic is also the worst in the Spanish top flight, slightly lower than Leganes’ average of 0.74 xG per game.

People who excel in LaLiga xG

1.Barcelona (+8.8)

2. Las Palmas (+3.6)

3. Villarreal (+3.5)

Barcelona’s xG of 31.2 is significantly lower than their actual goals tally of 40. That’s a measure of excellent finishing from some of the best players in LaLiga at the moment, with the likes of Dani Olmo and Lamine Yamal both significantly outperforming their individual performances . xG.

This suggests that Barca’s free-scoring ways will eventually decline a bit, and perhaps we saw the first evidence of that in their 1-0 defeat at Real Sociedad last time out. However, this does not necessarily make Hansi Flick and his team panic, considering that the Catalan team has won nine matches this season in all competitions by a margin of three goals or more. In other words, they should be able to be more wasteful and still win a lot of games comfortably.

It might be a little more worrying for Las Palmas to significantly outperform their xG, considering they are 16th in the standings. They have won three of four games since appointing Diego Martinez as their new boss, but they have only created the most xG in one of those games. This suggests there is an element of luck in their recent results, especially their 3-1 win at Rayo Vallecano last time out.

Villarreal is also an accomplished xG player. Ayoze Perez’s stunning form is one of the reasons, with the new signing scoring 35% of his shots so far in LaLiga 2024/25 and scoring a goal once every 74 minutes. Realistically, that kind of form is unlikely to be maintained over the course of the season, meaning the Yellow Submarine will need to find another source of goals, or create more chances, if they are to maintain their current scoring rate.

LaLiga xG underachievers

1. Real Calf (-6.3)

2. Real Sociedad (-6.0)

3. Getafe (-5.9)

If Ayoze Perez had stayed at Real Betis and finished the season like before, Europe might look very different now. Despite creating the third most xG, Betis is only ranked 10th in the top scorers with 14 goals. Players like Abde Ez and Vitor Roque were guilty of some of the biggest mistakes made by the Andalusian team.

A similar story also happened to Real Sociedad, another European candidate. They have only scored 11 goals in 13 games, although they have generally been better in home games against Madrid and Barcelona clubs. They hope one of their strikers can step up and convert more of the chances they create.

There are also reasons for Getafe fans to be positive here. Despite languishing just above the relegation zone with just one win, they have a positive xGD (expected goal difference) which suggests they are not playing badly. This suggests that things could improve if they can finally get last season’s top scorer with 15 goals, Borja Mayoral, fit.

LaLiga xGA – leaders for the 2024/25 season

1.Atletico Madrid (10.3)

2. Mallorca (10.6)

3. Getafe (11.6)

In terms of teams giving up the fewest chances, Atletico Madrid is ahead of the rest with just 10.3 xGA (expected goals conceded) in 13 games. This is an improvement on last season when they averaged 1.04 xGA per game in LaLiga and is also impressive considering they were missing key defender Robin Le Normand for most of the season.

Mallorca ranked in the top six for fewest xGA last season under Javier Aguirre, and they have built a solid defensive foundation under Jagoba Arrasate. They also have the second best overall defensive record with 10 goals conceded in 13 games which suggests they will likely continue to be tough to break down.

Getafe’s impressive XGA of 11.6 also reflects heavily on their goals against tally of 11, but it’s clear on the other side where their problems lie.

Players who excel in LaLiga xGA

1. Real Calf (-4.6)

2. Real Sociedad (-3.8)

3. Barcelona & Atlético Madrid (-3.3)

Surprisingly, the two biggest xG achievers, Real Betis and Real Sociedad, are also the two biggest xGA achievers. This suggests that while they are unlucky in terms of creating chances but not converting, their opponents are also wasteful and they may need to tighten up their defense to avoid conceding more goals as the season progresses.

Leaders Barcelona meanwhile have conceded 15.3 xGA compared to 12 goals, another reason to think the Catalan giants will not be able to maintain their early pace, at least in terms of how often they win games by big margins. Their XGD of +15.9 is the best in LaLiga, but much less than their actual goal difference of +28.

Atletico Madrid may also be a little lucky because they have only conceded seven goals so far, according to xGA data, but these negative xGA figures can also be a reflection of the good goalkeepers such as Jan Oblak and Alex Remiro.

The team that underachieved in LaLiga xGA

1. Celta Vigo (+6.7)

2. Villarreal (+3.7)

3. Girona & Alaves (+3.5)

Celta Vigo’s xGA tally of 15.3, compared to 22 actual goals conceded, is truly surprising. They slightly outperformed their xG, but not by much, which suggests that they are a bit of a shame currently ranked 11th, with their overall quality of play under Claudio Giraldez more indicative of a team that can progress to Europe.

Villarreal’s defensive data shows that they concede more goals than the chances they give up. This essentially cancels out their overperformance at the other end, suggesting that their current 4th place finish is a pretty fair reflection of their play so far.

There’s also reason to think Girona and Alaves will eventually tighten up at the back based on these numbers. Alaves still have the 5th worst xGA record at 18.5, with only the newly promoted club and Las Palmas giving up more.

Conclusion thoughts

Based on xGD numbers, most teams are more or less in the right area of ​​the league compared to the chances they create and give away, plus or minus a few spots.

The most divergent team currently in terms of expected goals in LaLiga is Osasuna, who outperform their xG by a margin of 3.2 and outperform their xGA by a margin of 2.6. The 5th ranked LaLiga team only ranks 14th in terms of xGD -3.7.

Las Palmas, who is in 16th position, is currently in last place with xGD -10.8. However, the same thing happened last season when they finished with the worst xGD in LaLiga (-23.5), but were still able to survive relegation in 16th place.